We’re right on schedule for post-Thanksgiving regret — when you ask yourself if you really needed to reload your plate with food for the third time. Eating like it’s a competitive sport felt great in the moment. What’s a few pounds when the mashed potatoes and gravy were that good?
But Susan, who’s been on semaglutide for more than six months, had a very different Thanksgiving. The drug’s active ingredient suppressed her hunger, made her feel full. “I stared at a plate of stuffing and didn’t feel the usual urge to dive in,” she said.
That ability — to turn someone away from a delicious dish against all odds — is reshaping the stock market for GLP drug manufacturers. Drug maker Eli Lilly for example, has seen its stock price surge nearly 40% over the past year, and cracked the trillion-dollar club.
But the original pioneer, Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic and for a brief time, Europe’s most valuable company, saw its valuation drop by more than 50% last year. It took another hit after its Phase 3 Alzheimer’s trials failed.
The winner in this market is changing fast. Even with the current Lilly–Novo duopoly, the anti-obesity market is getting more competitive, with pricing fights, new formats, and a innovation race that is changing who stays on top.
What’s driving the trillion-dollar rally?
On November 21, 2025, Eli Lilly became the first healthcare company to reach a $1 trillion market cap. Analysts don't see this as a peak — it is just confirmation that Lilly now leads the obesity market, and is going to keep soaring.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Lilly by another 10% to $1,290, arguing that the weight-loss drug boom is still in its early innings. With supply bottlenecks easing, Morgan Stanley models show sales continuing to beat expectations.
Bank of America and Truist Securities echo that view, crediting Lilly's massive new investments in manufacturing capacity. Put simply, Lilly can now supply weight loss drugs at a level that competitors can’t match. That advantage is showing up in the numbers.
Lilly's Zepbound Q3 sales nearly tripled to $3.6 billion, overtaking Wegovy’s $3.1 billion, which grew only 18% YoY. Analysts expect Zepbound to pull decisively ahead of Wegovy, with an even bigger lead in 2026.
A big part of the momentum comes from patient experience. Data from drugs.com shows Zepbound outperforming Wegovy across every major category. It delivers higher weight loss with better tolerability: nausea hits 31% of Wegovy users versus 25% of Zepbound users.
The oral revolution
The next battleground is clear: who launches the first, blockbuster weight-loss pill. Pills are cheaper to make, easier to store, and far more convenient than today’s injectable pens, which still face supply shortages.
Analysts expect a big shift from injections to daily pills by the end of the decade. Goldman Sachs has already adjusted its outlook: after factoring in expected price cuts for injectables once pills arrive, it now pegs the global anti-obesity market at $95B by 2030 (down from $130B).
Looking further ahead, Goldman sees a $120B peak by 2033, with $70B coming from the U.S. and $50B from international markets.
At the center of Wall Street’s optimism is Eli Lilly’s pill candidate, Orforglipron. The one-a-day pill has cleared Phase 3 and is expected to launch in 2026. Trials show patients losing around 15% of body weight over 36 weeks.
Its edge lies in chemistry. Unlike fragile, peptide-based injectables, Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug — meaning it can be mass-produced in standard chemical plants, just like statins or Tylenol. If approved, it could ease global supply pressure almost immediately.
The pill is also simpler for users: no fasting windows, no water rules, and you can take it with coffee. Weight loss (10–14.7%) is a touch lower than injectables, but convenience and scalability make it attractive. Side effects are similar to the injection: mild-to-moderate nausea, diarrhea and constipation.
Novo Nordisk’s planned pill is more effective but also higher friction. It's not a new compound, but just high-dose oral semaglutide. It is essentially “Wegovy in pill form” — which delivers 15–17% weight loss but requires an empty stomach, minimal water, and a 30-minute wait before eating to protect the peptide from digestion.
Everyone wants a piece of the pie
As Lilly and Novo plan to launch their pills by 2026, a second wave of biotech challengers is lining up behind them. AMGEN, Viking Therapeutics and Roche are all advancing weight-loss efforts, hoping to break the Lilly-Novo duopoly by 2027.
“Investors clearly prefer Lilly over Novo in the obesity-drug arms race,” said Evan Seigerman of BMO Capital Markets. “But that premium also leaves Lilly exposed to a big downside, if any pipeline drug disappoints.”
By contrast, other companies, which are trading at lower valuations face less downside and more upside if their bets work.
And there's more competition coming. One of the biggest news stories in late 2025 was Pfizer’s re-entry into the obesity space through its acquisition of Metsera. Novo reportedly tried to block the deal with a surprise $9B offer, forcing Pfizer to raise its Metsera bid to $10B.
Why the urgency from Novo? Because Metsera owns what analysts call the industry’s “crown jewel”: MET-097i, a once-monthly GLP-1 injection. Pfizer is betting that if the choice is between 52 injections a year or 12, the winner is obvious.
Analysts say the scramble underscores just how competitive this market is about to get. One put it simply: “As the GLP-1 race widens, companies aren’t just fighting for market share anymore; they’re fighting for staying power.”
As always,
The Trendlyne team
