The first ever American hot dog was sold by a German immigrant in 1867, to beachgoers on Coney Island. The first licensed pizza place, Lombardi's, opened in New York in 1905. And the first American tacos were sold by Mexican miners in the early 1900s from small street carts known as "chili queens".

These aren't just US classics—they're stories that came from elsewhere. For generations, the immigrant story shaped not just our culture, but drove the engine of the US economy.

Consider Jensen Huang, the Taiwanese-born CEO of NVIDIA, or Sundar Pichai, who grew up in India and now leads Google's parent company, Alphabet. Or Tony Xu, who came from China and co-founded DoorDash, a company that now defines modern convenience.

But today, a new, more uncertain chapter is getting added to the story.

A climate of fear?

In a once-bustling mall in Georgia, jewelry seller Maria Lopez looks around her. “It’s nearly empty,” she says. “People are scared of being arrested just for being outside. There is always this tension, this feeling that something could happen.”

As President Trump promises mass deportations and tougher enforcement, a fear is building that is reshaping immigrant communities, and the economy.

President Trump has long viewed immigration through the lens of national security, describing it as an "invasion" and claiming that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country." This has driven his "America First" policies, which focus on building a border wall, increasing deportations, and restricting legal immigration.

But public opinion is more nuanced. A majority of Americans still favor expanding the border wall, but recent Pew Research data shows a big shift. The number of Americans who want to decrease immigration has fallen to 30%, down from 55% just a year ago.

A solid 65% of Americans believe there should be a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants.The A merican public, it seems, is moving away from a hardline stance.

American views on Trump’s immigration actions

A slowing economic engine

In early 2025, the U.S. immigrant population hit a historic peak of 53 million. But within months of the crackdown, that number slipped, shrinking the US workforce by roughly 750,000 foreign-born workers.

Border crossings fall to near zero after Trump takes office

This sudden drop is creating a void. Most immigrants—about two-thirds—are in the US legally, working as naturalized citizens, green card holders, or on temporary visas. They are the doctors in our hospitals, the engineers in our tech hubs, and the professors in our universities. 

But the crackdown is most in America's fields, in the hard jobs that Americans don't want. An estimated 42% of the nation's crop workers are undocumented. In states like California, that number is over half. As enforcement ramps up, farmers are feeling the pain. "70% of my workers are gone," one California farmer said, a sentiment echoed across the agricultural sector. With fewer hands available, crops are left to rot, threatening not only farm incomes but also the price of food on every American's table.

Ripple effects: the crackdown is stalling job growth

In states like Illinois, a lack of foreign-born workers is causing construction project delays and higher costs. This has hit industrial giants like Caterpillar, as fewer projects mean less demand for their machinery.

Immigrants are also the backbone of the caregiving industry. In New York and New Jersey, over half of all health aides are foreign-born. A shrinking workforce is worsening staff shortages, threatening the quality of care for America’s rapidly aging population.

As Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi says, “Labor force growth has flatlined due to restrictive immigration policy. With industries slowing, a recession may be close.”

Still, supporters of the crackdown are hoping for an upside: a tighter labor market, they say, could force employers to raise wages to attract American workers, especially in lower-skilled jobs.

Can the US grow without immigrants?

For decades, immigration has been the primary driver of U.S. population growth, accounting for over 80% of it in recent years. So immigration is not just filling jobs; it is creating demand for more goods and services.

Immigration has fueled much of the population growth since 2020

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell put it simply: “In the long term, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration.”

But others, like Vice President JD Vance, see a future of negative net immigration as a win for American workers. This year, for the first time in decades, the immigrant population is projected to decline as 1.5 million people leave the U.S.

The economic cost when calculated, favours Powell. The effect could be severe. The Dallas Fed estimates that this outflow of workers wil cut GDP growth by 1% and push up inflation. 

Under a "mass deportation" scenario, the forecast is even grimmer, potentially slashing GDP growth by a staggering 1.5% by 2027.

Dallas Fed expects the GDP impact of deportations to be over 100 bps

The debate over immigration is no longer just about politics or culture—it's about the basic math of what keeps America's economic engine running. We are about to find out.